As the independence movement swept across Africa in the late 1950s and early 1960s, Ghana seemed to have a bright future. Unfortunately, Ghana soon slipped into the familiar pattern of coups and counter-coups, primarily led by the army. One of those military strongmen was Flt. Lt. Jerry John Rawlings. After years of military rule, Rawlings was popularly elected in 1992 and reelected in 1996 in relatively free and fair elections, and has produced a period of peace and stability. In the past few years, Ghana has become a favorite example for Western governments and institutions, looking for an "African success story." U.S.-Ghanaian relations reached an all time high in 1996 with President Clinton's trip to Africa where Clinton praised Rawlings and dubbed Ghana the "Gateway to Africa." But with a closer look into the current Ghanaian environment, Ghana's gate is open only a crack. The state of Ghana's fledgling democracy and its shaky economy should cause some concern. Ghana's upcoming 2000 elections will be the next real test of its democratic institutions.

President Rawlings has shed his image as a coup leader, and is now a self-proclaimed champion of democracy. But the transition from military authoritarianism to democratic pluralism is unfinished and many wonder if the army is separate from politics. One concern is that Rawlings still controls his own battalion of the military as a private force. He deployed the unit this past April to oversee the somewhat bizarre task of demolishing a local hotel. The Pier Hotel was owned by Alhaji Yussif Ibrahim, who allegedly violated building and land codes. It appears that the real reason for the demolition was driven by politics, as Ibrahim had recently fallen out of favor with the National Democratic Congress (NDC), Rawlings' ruling party. The government awards contracts largely based on loyalty to the party. The unusual demolition is symbolic of Ghana's struggle with arbitrary rule. On the domestic political side, President Rawlings is clearly focused on complete party and governmental control. On the economic side, the demolition sent a very clear warning to potential foreign investors.

The presidential election in 2000 appears to be a battle between NDC candidate, Vice-president John Mills, and National Peoples Party (NPP) candidate, John Kufour, who lost against Rawlings in the 1996 election. If the slow-growth economy stays on the rails, Vice-president Mills will be the likely victor.

How does President Rawlings fit into all of this? All indicators point to Rawlings abdicating presidential power in 2000, but it is highly likely that he will attempt to control the political scene from the wings. Apparently, there is serious consideration given to insuring Rawlings as NDC party chairman for life. The NDC recently formed a National Consultative Council composed of senior NDC figures; it is through this body that Rawlings may be able to rule as de facto head of state if his vice-president, Mills, is elected president. Rawlings is by no means ready to disappear from political life. His continued involvement would perpetuate the African strong man model, casting a shadow over real pluralism.