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Forty-five years after its abrupt
independence from Belgian colonization, the Democratic Republic of
the Congo has yet to enjoy the benefits of stable governance or
participate in contested elections. Largely due to an unprecedented
international effort, the approximately 28 million eligible voters
in Africa’s third largest country will finally have their first
multiparty elections in over 40 years on July 30th.
Current President of the
transitional government, Joseph Kabila, succeeded his father Laurent
Kabila who was assassinated in 2001 and is the leading presidential
contender. The incoming president faces various obstacles: restoring
trust domestically and internationally, bringing economic stability
to this war-torn country, and establishing a new governmental
framework. Beyond the domestic impact, these presidential elections
have the potential to influence the entire central African region.
After so many years of instability, the DRC is moving towards a
representative democracy, but the transition will require outside
help -- which the international community should be eager to give.
Background. The first round
of the presidential elections is scheduled for July 30th,
and if no candidate receives a simple majority, there will be a
runoff in October 2006 between the top two candidates. But the DRC’s
arduous history proves that a smooth election process will face an
uphill battle. War and poverty have contributed to an unstable
political and economic environment. The conflict, waged from 1998 to
2003, involved 6 countries and ultimately took more than 4 million
Congolese lives. However, the DRC’s recent progress has inspired
optimism. The current transitional President pleasantly surprised
most international observers by managing to carve out a fragile
peace for his country and approving a constitution through a
referendum on December 2005. This referendum provided the
legislation for elections to take place this year, laying out the
necessary definitions and restrictions underpinning the electoral
process. Economically, the DRC has shown improvement since the
withdrawal of foreign troops in 2002, but the lack of government
transparency and the uncertain legal structure continue to hinder
growth. Consequently, economic growth and political stability rest
on an election that demonstrates the will of the Congolese people.
Election Challenges. The
upcoming elections are going to be both difficult and expensive
because of the enormous logistical and security challenges of
holding elections in a country only recently emerging from a brutal
internecine war. The probability of violence is high due to the
absence of the participation of one of the opposition parties, the
UDPS. With the DRC’s underdeveloped infrastructure, distributing
ballots to over 25 million voters and monitoring the elections will
prove a difficult task. Voter registration started in late June
2005, but progress has been inevitably slow in a country with
dilapidated transportation networks and minimal technical expertise.
These challenges require advanced security measures to oversee all
election operations. To that end, the largest United Nations
peacekeeping force, MONUC, and the European Union’s force, EUFOR,
are working together to help the DRC manage the elections. The
composition of EUFOR is far-reaching across Europe, as the force is
comprised of 19 of the 25 countries that
make up the EU, and one-third of the force is German, one-third
French, and one-third from the other European nations.
The possibility of violence
continues to be a real threat, but a large uprising seems doubtful
considering the amount of security forces deployed throughout the
country. However, the recent protests by UDPS supporters and the 5
million extra ballots dispersed throughout the country have created
concerns. A report by the Carter Center highlights this concern,
saying that "government actors have deliberately attempted to
intimidate and obstruct certain candidates in their campaigning."
The challenge is making sure the process runs smoothly to prevent
the unleashing of political discontent, especially in the eastern
provinces. Due to the ongoing conflict in the east, these elections
are unlikely to resolve the rifts which fracture the Kivus, Ituri,
and Katanga.
Controlling political
dissatisfaction after the elections may be difficult, requiring the
extension of both MONUC and EUFOR’s mandates. MONUC forces are
scheduled to remain in the eastern provinces of the DRC until at
least September 30, and EUFOR is based in Kinshasa with a four-
month mandate beginning July 30. It is critical for security forces
and the international community to remain engaged until discontent
is sufficiently under control.
Policy Recommendations. A
stable Congolese government and economy is a positive thing for the
African continent, as well as the United States. The elections in
the DRC presented a chance for the US to embolden its quest of
spreading democratization. The US missed this prime opportunity to
directly assist the DRC by only supporting the MONUC mission;
however, the US can still play an important role by urging MONUC to
remain in Eastern DRC until peace is re-established after the
elections. Ituri, the Kivus, and North Katanga present an urgent
need to harmonize the east’s conflicts in order for the DRC to
progress. If the US encourages MONUC and the international community
to focus on the east’s stabilization after the elections, the DRC’s
newly-elected government will not face as many obstacles in
rebuilding this deprived nation.
Election Implications.
These elections pose many challenges, but a successful vote could
provide substantial benefits -- not just within the country but to
all of sub-Saharan Africa. If the DRC successfully holds credible
elections and establishes an efficient government, it would be an
important step towards economic growth and political stability. A
democratic and productive DRC could be the healthy heart of Africa.
With its plentiful arable land and lucrative natural resources, the
country has enormous potential. However, if the elections are not
deemed free and fair, the DRC could return to a state of turmoil,
spreading violence throughout the region. With only a few days
remaining, there is much trepidation concerning the outcome of these
elections. However, international support and security forces
provide a sense of optimism regarding the future of the DRC.
UPDATE -- None of the candidates in the July 30
elections gained the required 50% majority needed to produce an
outright winner. Therefore, a runoff election will be required
between the top two presidential contenders, Joseph Kabila and
Jean-Pierre Bemba, on October 29.
Lauren Willett was a Summer
Associate at The Forum for International Policy in 2006. Ms.
Willett is currently a senior at Sewanee University, majoring in
Economics and French Studies. |