BOB SCHIEFFER: With us now, General Brent Scowcroft who was the White House national security adviser during the Persian Gulf War when this President Bush's father was president. He now serves as chairman of the president's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board. I've known General Scowcroft all the way back to the Nixon administration when he was Henry Kissinger's assistant. General Scowcroft, let me just start with a question I asked Senator Levin. Do you think that this administration is heading toward a war with Iraq and is that a wise thing to be doing?

BRENT SCOWCROFT: I think they're certainly considering it. There's no question about it. And I think the president has made clear that he considers Saddam a threat that has to be dealt with. But I think now it's not a matter of either/or; it's a matter of setting your priorities and looking at the cost/benefit ratios. There's no question Saddam is a problem. What his goal is, whether it's to dominate the Gulf, whether it's to dominate the oil resources, we don't know, but he's already launched two wars. And he spends all the resources he can in working on his military. So he's a problem. But the president has announced that terrorism is our number-one focus. Now Saddam's a problem, but he's not a problem because of terrorism.

GLORIA BORGER: So do you think there is a terrorist link to Saddam?

BRENT SCOWCROFT: There may be some tac – they have one thing in common, and that is an intense dislike of the United States as standing in their way.

GLORIA BORGER: But...

BOB SCHIEFFER: But when you say it's a priority, you're saying that Saddam Hussein is not part of the terrorist problem.

BRENT SCOWCROFT: Yes.

BOB SCHIEFFER: And if we're going to fight the terrorists, that we should do that first and – and Saddam should be something we think about second. Is that – am I understanding what you're saying?

BRENT SCOWCROFT: That – that's about what I'm saying. If you look – let's suppose, for example, we're all ready and we launch an attack on Saddam Hussein tomorrow. It will be tough. It will not be a cakewalk. But can we take him out? Yes, we can take him out. Now what would the world – or what would the region look like if we did that right now? I think we could have an explosion in the Middle East. King Abdullah of Jordan was just here again. He's obviously intensely concerned because Jordan has a majority population of Palestinians. And to attack Iraq while the Middle East is in the terror that it is right now and America appears not to be dealing with something which to every Muslim is a real problem but instead go over here I think could turn the whole region into a cauldron...

BOB SCHIEFFER: So what are you...

GLORIA BORGER: Well, then...

BRENT SCOWCROFT: ...and thus destroy the war on terrorism.

BOB SCHIEFFER: So you're – what you're saying here this morning is that your advice to the president would be to – to stand back a little bit on Saddam Hussein and let's think about solving this problem with Al Qaeda and getting – finding these terrorists.

BRENT SCOWCROFT: I think so.

GLORIA BORGER: So you're...

BRENT SCOWCROFT: Uh...

GLORIA BORGER: Go ahead.

BRENT SCOWCROFT: Well, that and also the Middle East. If you can solve the Middle East, if we are seen to be bringing the parties back to the table and back to where we almost had it in 2000, then the attitudes towards us and confidence in our leadership – right now, there is almost a consensus in the world against our going into Iraq. That can't help but spill over into the war on terrorism.

GLORIA BORGER: So you're saying that it would be counterproductive.

BRENT SCOWCROFT: At this moment.

GLORIA BORGER: What would change then? At what – I mean, when would it not be counterproductive? What if, for example, the administration proved a link between Saddam and 9/11?

BRENT SCOWCROFT: Oh, that would – that would be one of the things that would make a difference. There are two – several things that could make a difference. That would be one. Another would be if we can make progress on the Israeli-Palestinian issue. That would change attitudes dramatically. A third, while we're focusing on that, would be to get the UN to insist on an inspection regime that is no notice, anytime, anywhere, so on. Saddam – the administration says Saddam would never agree to it. But if he doesn't agree to it, that gives you the casus belli that we don't really have right now. So it – you know, you can – you can work both problems at once.

BOB SCHIEFFER: But, General, how much of a threat do you believe that Saddam Hussein poses, at this point? Do you think he has a nuclear weapon? Do you think he has chemical weapons? Do you think he has biological weapons? And would he use them?

BRENT SCOWCROFT: We know he has chemical weapons. He probably has biological devices and probably weaponized. He does not have nuclear weapons yet. It is most likely – this is my guess – it's most likely, though, a shortage of fissile material, which if he has to manufacture it himself, is very hard to do without us detecting it. It takes big facilities. But there's a lot of fissile material around the world that he could steal, buy, whatever. But I don't think – I don't think he – he is there yet.

But I think – I think Senator Levin is right. This is not a man who will risk everything on the roll of a dice. If you go back and look at him during the Gulf War, he didn't do everything he could have done. He could, for example, have used chemicals – planted chemical weapons in New York, for example, and said, 'If you people do this, I'm going to release some nerve gas or something.' He didn't do those.

GLORIA BORGER: If – if we do go to war with Iraq, what should we do differently this time that we didn't do during the Gulf War?

BRENT SCOWCROFT: That's a hard question to answer because we would have different objectives.

GLORIA BORGER: Take out Saddam, for example?

BRENT SCOWCROFT: Yes. The objective in the Gulf War was not to take out Saddam. It was to liberate Kuwait. And we did that. Liberate Kuwait and also prevent Saddam from being a threat to the region. He's still weaker than he was in 1990. He's trying to become a threat to the region again. I don't think he's there yet.

BOB SCHIEFFER: All right. General, we have to stop it right there. Thank you so much.

SCOWCROFT: You're very welcome.

BOB SCHIEFFER: Very enlightening this morning. I'll be back with a final word in just a moment..