Daniel Poneman on Anderson Cooper 360 Degrees

ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening, everyone.

A lot of stories breaking tonight: another Republican congressman in trouble; and frightening new details about North Korea's nuclear test.

Daniel Poneman was a National Security Council member for the Clinton and first Bush administrations. He joins me now from Washington.

Daniel, thanks for being with us. First of all, what do you make of this report?

DANIEL PONEMAN, FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL MEMBER: Well, I think it's appropriate that they're responding cautiously.

Obviously, the question on everyone's mind, up until now, when there had been only a seismic signature, was whether, in fact, there had been a fissionable device. If these reports bear out, and if they're confirmed, that is certainly what it looks like.

COOPER: For those who are opposing sanctions, does this report or does an actual confirmation of a nuclear test make it harder to oppose sanctions?

PONEMAN: I think it would make it harder to oppose sanctions, because it's that much more conclusive evidence that North Korea has crossed the Rubicon, that they are a nuclear weapons state. And all the implications of that, with the instability that it could generate in the region, with the arms race it could generate throughout the world, I think calls upon the world for a very strong response.

COOPER: The Security Council is meeting tomorrow, obviously, to work on this resolution.

The diplomats say the resolution could prevent materials for weapons programs and luxury goods from entering North Korea. There was this quote from John Bolton, who said, maybe will be a little diet for Kim Jong Il.

But, in truth, I mean, how effective can these sanctions really be?

PONEMAN: I think the most important thing in what we're witnessing in the Security Council now is that the resolution come out clearly, firmly, unanimously, and that it send a clear signal to North Korea that the international community is unified.

I think, frankly, the sanctions themselves, in the first instance, could be modest, and still be effective, if the message is clear, because they can always be made stronger.

COOPER: It's also questionable how much they can really weaken this regime. I mean, this is a regime in which two million people, you know, are starving to death, and they don't really seem to care much about that.

PONEMAN: Well, both aspects, Anderson, of what you just said are very important and correct.

This is an autarkic regime. They are very self-sufficient. They don't care that much about what happens to the people. But what we do have is supplies coming from China of oil and food that, if curtailed, could really bring it to its knees, probably.

COOPER: And a North Korean regime brought to its knees, does that create a vacuum of power, which is as dangerous if not more dangerous than the current regime?

PONEMAN: Well, one might argue that the one thing more dangerous than Kim Jong Il with nuclear weapons is Kim Jong Il in a state of collapse with nuclear weapons. That's a good point.

However, I think that what you are hearing from the Chinese so far would suggest they are not prepared to push things that far.

COOPER: Daniel Poneman, appreciate your expertise. Thanks.

PONEMAN: Thank you.