WASHINGTON - No one expected a breakthrough
in the talks in Beijing last week among the United States, North
Korea and China on resolving the North Korean nuclear problem, and
none was forthcoming. Instead, the meetings were predictably
sterile, unexpectedly truncated, and marked by the paradoxical
combination of bellicose bluster and hints of possible deals we
have come to expect from Pyongyang.
But it would be a mistake to dismiss the
talks as a farce or a failure, as many inside the Beltway have. On
the contrary, the United States made important progress toward
stability in Northeast Asia. In fact, the North Koreans' behavior
probably alienated their previously sympathetic Chinese hosts, and
may have strengthened America's hand globally in the dispute. In
addition, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell has now revealed that
North Korea offered a plan to take steps in dismantling its
nuclear and missile programs in exchange for economic and security
benefits.
In no event did the talks change any of
the fundamentals. That is, North Korea still requires urgent and
sustained attention, and the range of options for dealing with it
remains unappetizing. The current crisis began last October
when North Korea admitted that it has a program to produce highly
enriched uranium for nuclear weapons. In doing so, it tacitly
confessed that it had been cheating on the so-called Agreed
Framework of 1994. In the ensuing weeks, North Korea took
increasingly provocative steps, including expelling the
international inspectors who were monitoring its nuclear
facilities, restarting a nuclear reactor that could produce more
plutonium, and withdrawing from the Nuclear Nonproliferation
Treaty.
With each step, it moved closer to
becoming a full-fledged nuclear weapons state. The United
States has responded by asserting that it wants to resolve this
increasingly dangerous situation through diplomacy if possible,
but repeatedly noting that it has not taken any options off the
table. It has also insisted that it will not pay blackmail - that
is, it will not reward North Korean cheating by offering
inducements for Pyongyang to come back into compliance with its
existing obligations.
Put differently, paying for a return to
the terms of 1994 Agreed Framework is not an acceptable option.
Finally, the United States has maintained that any engagement with
North Korea must be multilateral, and explicitly ruled out direct,
one-on-one talks with Pyongyang.
Up until the Beijing talks, the other
concerned parties - particularly South Korea, Japan and China -
had been urging the United States not to let form get in the way
of substance, and had been pressing Washington to agree to direct
talks. The United States resisted, insisting that any lasting
solution to the North Korean problem could be achieved only if
Pyongyang's neighbors were involved in talks. It has also been
urging the Chinese to use their influence to get North Korea to
halt (and, ideally, reverse) its march down the nuclear road, and
also to agree to multilateral talks.
Considered against this backdrop, the
talks in Beijing should be chalked up as a success for the
American approach, and a testament to effective American
leadership. Most important, the Chinese role has changed. In
response to United States requests, China has gone from its more
familiar posture of sitting on the sidelines of controversial
international security issues to playing an active and
constructive role. Indeed, there is little doubt that the North
Koreans would have refused to come to the table had the People's
Republic not all but directed them to do so, a point the Chinese
underscored by suspending critical fuel shipments to North Korea
for several days. (There also are reports that Beijing told
Pyongyang not to cross the red line of reprocessing its spent fuel
to extract more plutonium.)
And the Chinese did not simply convene
the meeting, but participated actively, making the talks
multilateral in fact as well as form. Moreover, the decision
by China to play host to the talks gave it a major stake in a
resolution of the issue, and the North Koreans' behavior during
those meetings - which deeply embarrassed the Chinese -improves
the odds that Beijing will continue to use its leverage on the
North.
These developments are significant, not
least because it is difficult to imagine any lasting resolution of
the North Korean problem that does not involve China, as well as
South Korea and Japan. At the same time, we should not lose sight
of two key points. First, the Beijing talks shed little light on
whether North Korea would be willing under any reasonable set of
circumstances to abandon its programs in nuclear weapons and
missiles to deliver them. Second, it remains in the American
interest to pursue multilateral engagement with North Korea to try
to find out the answer.
United States objectives likewise remain
the same. We will not pay blackmail, and we will not buy the same
horse twice. But we do want to stop North Korea from being a
threat to peace and security in northeastern Asia and a supplier
of weapons of mass destruction elsewhere. To realize these goals,
we must dismantle the North Korean nuclear and missile programs in
a way that is realistically irreversible and verifiable.
In return, we should be willing to join
with others in providing credible assurances to North Korea that
it need have no concern about its own security, so long as it does
not threaten others. We should also make clear that we would be
prepared to take a leading role in ending North Korea's political
and economic isolation. Such a proposal would be a deal about a
whole new horse, going far beyond the 1994 Agreed Framework.
As for North Korea's intentions and
objectives, the Beijing talks offered confusing and contradictory
hints. Only when there are serious negotiations to make clear both
what we and the other concerned parties require of North Korea,
and what we are prepared to do in return, will we get to the
bottom line.
The United States accordingly should make
clear that it is prepared to continue its policy of engagement
with the North (to be expanded as soon as possible to include
South Korea and Japan) with a view to negotiating a peaceful
resolution. This willingness, however, will be predicated on a
freeze in North Korea's nuclear and missile activities. We can
press the case that if the North Koreans are serious about putting
those programs on hold, we would reciprocate with respect to our
military forces in and around the Korean peninsula. But if North
Korea continues to expand its nuclear activities and, in
particular, if it pursues the reprocessing of its spent fuel rods,
the United States will have no choice but to fundamentally
reassess its commitment to a diplomatic resolution.
There is no assurance that Pyongyang will
respond positively to such an approach, much less that
negotiations will be successful. On the contrary, history gives
rise more to pessimism than hope. But even if that pessimism
proves warranted - and North Korea shows itself to be more
interested in nuclear proliferation than in guaranteed security -
continuation of Washington's good-faith effort will put it in an
immensely stronger position internationally to deal with the
threat.
Brent Scowcroft, president of the
Forum for International Policy, was national security adviser to
Presidents Gerald Ford and George H.W. Bush. Arnold Kanter,
a senior fellow at the forum, was under secretary of state from
1991 to 1993.