I
n a world awash in excess nuclear
bomb fuel, a few kilograms could spark an explosion on the scale
of the attack on Hiroshima.
Russian stocks of nuclear
weapons-grade material include more than 1,000 tons of highly
enriched uranium and nearly 150 tons of plutonium. Over the past
decade, numerous thefts of such material have been detected, and
we now see reports that Osama bin Laden has tried to obtain
nuclear weapons.
Fortunately, none of these
attempts has produced catastrophe. But we must seize this moment
to adopt a new approach. "So far, so good" is not good
enough, since a plutonium ingot the size of a soda can could fuel
a nuclear explosion that could kill 50,000 people.
Worse, terrorists do not need a
sophisticated device to succeed. They could simply surround a
conventional explosive with a blanket of radioactive material to
disperse radiation in a city-killing many, sickening more and
terrorizing all.
Americans and Russians are
working together to reduce the threat.
Over the past decade, the Nunn-Lugar
Cooperative Threat Reduction Program has deactivated thousands of
warheads and missiles while funding peaceful work for former
weapons scientists. The United States contracted to buy 500 tons
of Russian highly enriched uranium, to be blended down to
nonexplosive uranium for sale in the commercial market.
Bilateral cooperation has
produced significant improvements in the security systems
protecting nuclear materials throughout Russia.
But we need a comprehensive
approach that would move beyond locking up materials to the actual
reduction of the vast stocks of plutonium and uranium that could
be fashioned into weapons.
To date, the uranium deal has
eliminated the equivalent of 5,000 warheads. Getting rid of
plutonium, which remains highly toxic and radioactive for
millenniums, has proved more difficult.
Despite years of discussion,
governments have yet to construct a viable plutonium disposition
program. Plutonium is more expensive and more difficult to handle
than other fuels, so some incentive would be needed to persuade
reactor operators to use it.
One option would be to offer
government support or tax breaks to promote improved reactor
designs or fuels that utilized weapon-origin material. Reactors
don't emit greenhouse gases; governments could reward that.
Another option would harness market forces by offering to lease
weapon-origin fuel to utilities. The fees utilities would pay to
avoid the expense and liability of having to dispose of spent fuel
could be enough to subsidize the use of plutonium as fuel.
Why should governments or
companies support plutonium burning? Because we should not allow
the pure, easily handled plutonium left over from the Cold War to
remain in its metallic form, ideally suited for terrorist use.
Irradiating it in reactors
consumes some of the plutonium, with the balance embedded in spent
fuel that is so hot, in temperature and radioactivity, that
terrorists could not handle it for many years.
Some have argued that plutonium
disposition is too expensive, so we should focus on the easier
task of storing it securely. This is a false choice; we need both
safe storage and ultimate disposition. Our generation produced
this plutonium; it would be immoral to shunt to our grandchildren
the responsibility to eliminate it.
Others worry that burning
plutonium from weapons would lead to its widespread
commercialization. But it is unlikely that a program aimed at
reducing total quantities of weapons-usable plutonium would
stimulate increasing those quantities through the costly
separation of plutonium from spent fuel.
Integrating plutonium from
weapons into the marketplace would give Russia an incentive to
ensure that these materials are protected and accounted for as a
revenue-generating asset, rather than depending on continued U.S.
handouts for safe storage.
Adding a commercial component to
burning plutonium also would free more public money for other
fronts in the war against terrorism.
A public-private partnership to
get rid of Cold War plutonium would be a difficult challenge. But
the costs of failure are unacceptable. Sept. 11 proved that those
costs are real.